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File 156046180527.png - (393.32KB , 1558x1064 , Mr Blue Sky 1.png )
935639 No. 935639 ID: a451fc

You rise from a deep slumber, staring up at a beautiful blue sky. With no memory of how you got here, or where here even is. You are lost in both a physical and mental sense, but not for long because...
850 posts omitted. Last 50 shown. Expand all images
No. 939762 ID: a9af05

>my superstitious ass is going to be thinking about it forever now.
And then Sprite says, "I didn't know your brain was in your ass!"

>Pit traps with spikes have been made
Did we put a cover over them? That way if an enemy steps on it, they'll fall into the pit!

Do this.
No. 939764 ID: 864e49

Arrayan go out and set up the bear traps with the rotten meat, when you get baxk use whats left of the leather to make Jordy some armor. We can make a metal shovel after the eclipse is over.

Jordy and Verm get to work on that cabin.
No. 939769 ID: a9af05

>Make armor for Jordy
We don't have enough leather to make armor for him! We need more than 20 leather to make armor big enough to fit Jordy!
No. 939775 ID: 8d4593

Eh. I'm less worried about the shovel and more wanting to get this cabin up.

I'd suggest having everyone begin construction.
No. 939780 ID: a9af05

I've got an idea for a potion! Let's try combining some Redcap Mushrooms, Red Moss, and Slime, to see if we can create a potion to use on any enemies we run into!
No. 939782 ID: 8d4593

I bet Red moss and Demon Needles would make something that burns like hell.
No. 939798 ID: 977456

Consider putting a fireplace with a chimney in the cabin. It would let you cook things without smoke issues and hopefully it is sealed enough to heat up the cave and cabin without needing to burn down the forest.

Consider making wooden armour with leather straps for Jordy.

Hammer out an extremely thin all-metal torso-armour for Sprite. Just keep pounding on her stuff until it is almost foil. I mean, she would suit the Mysterious Stranger look with the all-obscuring(bar the glowing eyes) cloak much better, but that might be too heavy for her?
No. 939823 ID: 864e49

Yes but Ar made leather chest piece, leggings, gloves and crotch flap loin cloth with 20.
Jordy's not that much bigger then Ar so 20 should be enough to make a chest piece.

Demon Needles, Redcap Mushrooms, Red Moss, and Slime!
Poisonous burning paste we can put on arrows or our spear.
No. 939835 ID: a451fc
File 156371792430.png - (489.04KB , 1558x1064 , Mountain Cabin 1.png )

Arrayan: Set traps
Arrayan prepares the bear trap with rotten meat and resets the other two unbroken traps.

Everybody: Work on Cabin
[x350] STONE and [x200] WOOD are gathered. Vermilion mixes the [x85] SAND and [x50] crushed LIMESTONE with water into mortar. With everybody putting their all into constructing the cabin, it get's done quicker. An extra [x25] STONE is used to create a chimney and fireplace. By the time the building is finished and the door is set into the front the sun is about to set. Everybody eats a round fruit.

SPRITE: Great work everybody! Fort Lizard hole is complete!
ARRAYAN: Okay, I give up. Welcome to Fort Lizard Hole everyone!
SPRITE: That's the spirit Ar!
VERMILION: You're a broken man Arrayan. I'll weep for you. Or at the very least come up with a better name for this place than that.
No. 939839 ID: a451fc
File 156371863173.png - (101.97KB , 748x900 , Jordy Wooden Chetplate.png )

>Arrayan: Make Jordy leather armor
Jordy's a bit taller than Arrayan, and his body is more rotund as well so the armor will need leather that's not available. In place of leather armor, Arrayan uses [x10] Leather and [x25] Wood to make him a wooden chest plate. It's about as good as leather, accept it might break much sooner, especially if anything metal cuts it. Still, it's better than nothing.

>Vermilion: Mix Demon Needles, Redcap Mushrooms, and Red Moss
Vermilion crushes the Needles into a powder, grinds the mushrooms, and mixes all of it with the red moss and boils it in water turning the whole mixture into a thin paste-like concoction.

Vermilion has created Blaze Decoction and stores it in a glass bottle. (Applies Burn)

It's getting dark. Jordy still has energy, but nothing to really use it for. Regardless he can stay up tonight if necessary.
No. 939848 ID: 58b4f3

>Everybody eats a round fruit.
Didn't you say that you had food that was going to spoil tomorrow? It might be best if you guys eat all of the food that's about to spoil or eat as much of it as you possibly can. That way you guys will have less food to throw out in the morning!

>Lizard Hole
Now Arrayan can invite everyone to come into his hole! XD
No. 939850 ID: 864e49

>Lizard hole
Ar it can be any kind of hole you like. Though we could name it the crack shack, cause it started from a crack in the wall.

>years later, after all those involved in its construction have long passed, the people of the beautiful prosperous town will continue to wonder why the large lavishly built castle in the center of their small city where their Dragon Lord resides was named "Chateau de Lizard Hole".

Can he work the forge? Otherwise go get more wood just in case.

>Blaze Decoction
Would adding slime increase potency?
No. 939852 ID: 91ee5f

How about this? We call it the Dream Chasers’ Den? Because everyone here is chasing a dream. Yeah, I know it’s cheesy and not all that great, but it’s gotta be better than Lizard Hole! At least, Arrayan will think it’s better.

Speaking of dreams, let’s ask Jordy what his dream is. Arrayan wants to find a way to become a dragon and Vermilion is looking for the Philosopher's Stone. So what is Jordy’s dream?

>fragile armor
Guess we’ll have to fix that once we get more leather.

>It's getting dark. Jordy still has energy, but nothing to really use it for. Regardless he can stay up tonight if necessary.
Nah, he doesn’t need to stay up.

>eat more, have less to throw out.
Might as well do this. It’ll be better if only some of the food spoils instead of all of it spoiling.
No. 939865 ID: b1b4f3

Why not make the cooling pot now?
No. 939881 ID: 8d4593

Now all there's left to do is make plate for arrayans armor, a proper shield, a weapon for Jordy, some extra healing items, some extra food, finish up some holes... Yeah. We're on schedule. We got dis.

Rest up everyone.
There will be plenty to do tomorrow.

Verm: Dream of names.
No. 939883 ID: 44b1b5

Jordy: Got any dreams and/or ambitions? Might as well ask that question now that you're part of the team.

Better if he doesn't head outside. Just because he can, doesn't mean he should.
No. 939980 ID: a451fc
File 156378832160.png - (238.22KB , 1558x1064 , Mountain Cabin Night.png )

>Why not make the cooling pot now?
All of the sand that would've been used for it is gone! Not to mention there's no clay to make pots. It'll have to be made in the morning when more supplies are around.

>Can Jordy work the forge?
He can work the forge just fine, but staying outside would be dangerous, and the fireplace inside has no way of supplying air to the fire. Wood and Leather can be made into bellows later for an efficient way of doing so.

>Jordy: Got any dreams and/or ambitions?
JORDY: Have a place to sleep. Have food to eat...maybe learn how to make beer. Don't know, not much.

>Verm: Dream of names.
Vermilion sits in his bed thinking of different names for the cave other than lizard hole. Lizard Hollow is close enough without being awful. Dragon Grotto isn't bad. The Dugout is simple if not a little bland. The Cave of Dreams sounds like a strip club. Vermilion drifts to sleep before he can think of more.

>Everyone: Rest
Everybody falls asleep.
No. 939981 ID: a451fc
File 156378832583.png - (222.52KB , 1558x1064 , Up late.png )

...In the middle of the night. Sprite hears something outside, something that doesn't sound like monsters. She lets everyone else sleep but out of curiosity peeks outside on her own...
No. 939982 ID: a451fc
File 156378833173.png - (538.37KB , 1558x1064 , The Night Cart.png )

Sprite peeks through the wooden door, to see the ethereal image of a wooden cart pulled not by a steed, but by ghostly spider legs growing from the front of it. A music box can be heard grinding away somewhere inside filling the night air with an eerie yet soothing melody. Sprite floats out of the house to move closer. As she does the side of the cart opens up, and two wisps of faint light spill out. Their whispers linger in the air.

WISPS: ..spiIIIiin
SPRITE: ...Spin?

No. 939983 ID: a451fc
File 156378833711.png - (284.46KB , 1808x1064 , Ghost Roulette.png )

A panel in the side of the cart opens up to reveal a large wheel covered with numbers and different colors. The wisps take on a more solid form and shape into two small ghosts.

FISH: And when your luck screws you over throw your life away until you win.
SPRITE: Whoa! What's all of this?
FISH: Or lose, lose is much more likely to happen
SPRITE: But I don't really have any money.
HOTT: You got those MEDIUMS don't ya? So c'mon c'mon! PLAY PLAY PLAY! Don't you wanna be a winner!?
No. 939984 ID: a451fc
File 156378842940.png - (155.33KB , 1714x767 , Ghost Roulette Table.png )

Puffs of fog rise off of the carts chassis, twisting and solidifying into a board with numbers and words on it. The colors of the table correspond to the colors on the

FISH: Let's make sure know how to play before you blow all your stuff.
HOTT: NAH! THAT'S LAME! Besides, not knowing how to play makes it more fun! So, come on just make a bet and spin the wheel already!
FISH: Do you need a run down on how to lose? I mean play? If you're familiar with roulette it's basically the same. If you have any questions just ask before you lose.

[x51] WOOD
[x40] STONE
[x14] ONYX
[x13] TIN ORE
[x25] SULFUR
No. 939985 ID: 094652

Bad idea.
Statistically, the house is expected to win in the long run.
Practically, when you place a big bet they could simply run off.

Shoo ghosts don't bother me
No. 939986 ID: 44b1b5

I think we can try betting something we can afford to lose, just to try it out. Put 55 limestones on... let's try Odd.
No. 939998 ID: a451fc
File 156381027444.png - (168.43KB , 1714x767 , Ghost Roulette Table 55 Limestone on ODD.png )

rolled 24 = 24

Sprite coughs up 55 Limestone to bet on ODD. The chunks of MEDIUM shrink into a small poker-chip and lands on the ODD section of the roulette board. Hott spins the roulette wheel.
No. 939999 ID: a451fc
File 156381032926.png - (274.53KB , 1808x1064 , Ghost Roulette Losing Spin.png )

FISH: Even on a safe bet failure peaks it's ugly head. Unfortunate.
HOTT: Awww that's too bad, but don't feel down! One lose doesn't mean winnings impossible!
FISH: If you're dead set on blowing more resources we can always play more. This wheel's good for two more spins.


Should Sprite keep playing?
No. 940001 ID: 9cf530

Let's bet 100 limestones and go for ODD again! I'm feelin' lucky today!
No. 940003 ID: 7fb87a

Of course not. Do you really expect a magic gambling game run by dead people to be fair?
No. 940004 ID: 948104

Fish is right, we're more likely to lose. Really no point to doing this.
No. 940005 ID: 91ee5f

I’m not sure if I understand the rules correctly, but I’d like to place 2 IRON ORE on BLACK.

If we win, we’ve got some more iron ore. If we lose, then it’s a minimal loss we could easily fix next time we go mining for ore.
No. 940009 ID: 44b1b5

Making the same bet a second time to play the odds and recoup is tempting, but I’d rather cut our losses now and explain what happened in the morning. In the future, I think the roulette should only be used in all-or-nothing emergencies.
No. 940014 ID: a451fc
File 156382224385.png - (471.01KB , 1558x1064 , The Night Cart 2.png )

SPRITE: I think that's enough gambling for me.
FISH: Good choice, you can't win so why try?
HOTT: What? BOOO! And I'm not saying that cuz' I'm a ghost! Whatever, You'll be in a gambling mood later. BYE!

The roulette wheel retracts back into the cart as the ghosts fly back inside. The legs on the front of the cart start up and pull it out of view. Sprite quickly reenters the cave-cabin so nothing sees her and waits 'til morning...
No. 940015 ID: a451fc
File 156382226112.png - (446.98KB , 1558x1064 , Mountain Cabin Morning.png )

Once the sun rises Sprite gives her wake up call.

SPRITE: Good morning everyone! Today's our last day before the eclipse comes so let's make it count!
No. 940016 ID: b1b4f3

Well we're mostly ready. I think what we really need to do today is get materials for the cooling pot, make it, and then stock up on food.

Arrayan, Verm: go check traps.
Jordy: go collect some sand from the mountain. Make a shovel first I guess.
No. 940018 ID: 44b1b5

Sprite: Don’t forget to tell everyone what happened last night. Honesty is a good policy.
No. 940021 ID: 864e49

Everyone: eats foods.
Also everyone: go forest. Ar to check traps, Jordy to collect more wood cause we always seem to need wood, Verm to collect ingredients/help carry stuff.

When we all get back make a nice bronze shovel or two and get what we need to make cooling pots, then make cooling pots and then smelt the rest of our metal and then.....um.....what else do we need to do?
I guess if we get anything in the traps then we could make more leather but what else?
No. 940026 ID: a451fc
File 156383590456.png - (179.18KB , 1180x988 , Jordy Getting Sand.png )

>Sprite: Don’t forget to tell everyone what happened last night.
Sprite explains what she saw and did last night. She says everyone should be on the lookout for carts that appear like that one.

>Everyone: eat foods.
Everybody eats a bundle of jerky

>Jordy: go collect some sand from the mountain. Make a shovel first I guess.
Jordy makes a stone shovel with Vermilion's help, and heads off to gather silica sand. Without Sprite, Jordy can carry [x100] Units of a medium in one inventory slot. He manages to get [x150] sand after some work and he heads back to base with it.
No. 940027 ID: a451fc
File 156383592094.png - (232.81KB , 1832x1064 , Wild Boar Trapped.png )

>Arrayan: Check traps
Arrayan goes through all of the traps set. One has globs of slime caught in the ropes. Sprite picks up [x30] Slime. The bear trap has the corpse of a boar that attempted to escape it, but bled out. Arrayan harvests the corpse. The final trap has nothing in it. Arrayan resets the traps and re-baits the bear trap.

>Vermilion: Gather Ingredients
Vermilion pulls [x30] Slime from the inside of a hollowed out tree trunk, which he then harvests for wood with the Iron Hatchet [x125] Wood is gathered. A nearby tree stump has a [x5] Soothing Leaves growing next to it.

After gathering everything the group heads back to the cave while Vermilion proposes new names for the base.

VERMILION: Dreamer's Grotto!
ARRAYAN: Sounds like a strip club.
VERMILION: A lot of them do, I don't know why they all turn out that way. You ought to be helping, comrade Arrayan. You're the one who has the most objections to our new home being called "The Lizard Hole"
No. 940030 ID: eeb7d9

>"The Lizard Hole"
Because is like calling it "The Lizard Asshole"! And i don't swing that way... I think?
No. 940033 ID: b1b4f3

Alright let's make the cooling pot, smoke more jerky from the boar, and forage for fruit and veggies. Once we have enough food to last us through the eclipse we can start doing other things.

Hmm how about Fort Scale? Stonefoot or Earthfoot? Since it's at the foot of the stony mountain? Or we could just name it after the mountain, what's it called?
Then there's uh, Origin Holdout...
No. 940034 ID: 8d4593

Alright were set on food.
We still need clay right?

Send Jordie to get clay. If it's off the mountain send Verm with him and make Jordie take the crossbow.

If you can get clay on the mountain just send Jordie on his own and have Verm start making more healing items.

Arrayan should get on making the metal plates for his armor (Which he made specifically to be able to hold plates that we never made) and a proper shield.

Make the armor plates from bronze.

As for the shield, might I suggest forging together Ghost metal with Iron that's been hardened with crushed exoskeleton shard, adorned in the front with woolly goat horn.
No. 940041 ID: a9af05

The boar hide can be turned into leather, which can be used to give Jordy armor that's not fragile.

Since Ar was the one who first made the place, let's name it after something related to him.

Since he wants to become a dragon, let's name the base "Dragon's Roost".
No. 940048 ID: 977456

Check out the lake for clay and sand. Also see if Sprite slowly accumulate gold by sticking her tail in a river like some kind of magical automated panning.

Hungry Hungry Hollow? Or Cube aitch for short! Sometimes further abbreviated to Cabbage...

There are two kinds, how to win each:
Peer lottery: Many contribute an insignificant value, one gains a significant value.
Winning: Never invest enough that you would care about the loss ie. don't actually gamble, treat it as a clinical wealth redistribution.
Scam Organised: wherein someone runs it as a business in which people give them money for the privilege of being given less money in return.
1: Both be the one running the business AND live in a world devoid of karma.
2: Find an advantage that the business hasn't accounted for in their odds and sell it to someone else take advantage(such as by deciding that the 7 in "High" is either a font or crossed-out depending upon whether the result is within 20-37 or 20-3). *Take note, they have put in more time, effort, and expertise than you, if you think that you have found something they missed, then assume that you are wrong(they can make exactly the same claims about that font...).
3: Play the odds. In the long-run, you will always lose, but short term, you are likely to win eventually, ensure that your single win will provide a profit greater than your cumulative losses and then never gamble again.
Example: If you win double, then start with 1, then your total profit will be either 1 and you leave with 1 profit or -1 and you keep going.
Compound your -1 with a 2 for either a 1 net profit and [end] on a win or a -3 net profit.
Next bet 4 for 1 profit or -7 debt.
Note that the debt escalates rapidly and the profit remains static. Go in assuming that your profit should be tiny and give yourself a huge buffer against an extremely unfair losing streak, losing 20 times in a row on 50% odds is very possible. In theory you can just go back to the lowest value after every win, so long as every losing streak ends with a win that pays for the entire streak you will keep making a profit, but the longer you play, the more likely that engineered freak losing streak that leaves you unable to keep going until you next win happens or they eject you mid-losing-streak so you can't get back to a profit. They will also presumably know about this and have extremely limited options for doubling your bid after every loss. So this is more of an extension of 2...

No. 940078 ID: b1b4f3

It doesn't matter what you do, you can't win Roulette.
Thankfully this is a roulette table with only 1/37th profit for the house when betting on any of the non-1 options. I don't see anything stating what the return is for betting on 1 and winning, but let's just assume it's something like 35x your bet.
No. 940086 ID: 977456

I'm, uhh, I am pretty sure that you can win at roulette if you can keep playing until a win and follow the pattern of:
If lose then double bid and try again.
If win then reset to original bid.
I tested it with one-in-three win rates from random.org with doubling of the bid on a win(should be a two-thirds return on investment) and made a profit. Although I only made 1 on a win and was down beyond negative 400 after an 8 loss streak, but I did end up with a profit of 13 after 37 rolls. It fluctuates very far negatively, so if anything stops you (such as being thrown out or not having enough money to keep doubling your bid until your next win) you are likely to be far into the negatives at the time, but so long as you can keep doubling until you next win, you will pay off your entire losing streak because the amount you bid when you win will be equal to everything you bid since you started doubling, combined, plus the original bid. Then you reset to avoid an infinite doubling abyss. It doesn't change your odds of winning, but it does make sure that you bid more when you win than when you lose.
I believe that casinoes avoid this by having a maximum bid. That way eventually you will have a bad enough loss streak that you will hit the limit and not be able to keep doubling your bid, thus violating the ability to keep playing while following the pattern.
No. 940089 ID: b1b4f3

You already found the problem: that scheme only guarantees profits if you have an infinite amount of money in reserve. Otherwise, you have a non-0 chance to get a loss streak and go bankrupt MUCH faster than you would if you weren't doubling your bet every time. Raising the stakes increases your risk every time you do it.
Also the theoretical profit is based off of the initial bet, which you want to be small so you don't go bankrupt as easily, so your profit is very low, which makes you play more to get more profit, so you go bankrupt anyway just from random fluctuation.
Casinos set a maximum bid to lower the risks for themselves. They don't want someone coming in with a million dollars, putting it all on red, then walking out with 2 million. Casinos mainly get profits over time based on volume, not via winning large bets, so there's no reason to take large bets.
No. 940090 ID: b1b4f3

For a more detailed description:
No. 940092 ID: b1b4f3

The article doesn't say why losing streaks are more likely than you'd think. Let me explain:
Let's say you'd only go bankrupt if you lose 6 times in a row. You'd think "0.5^6 is only 1.5%, that's really low!" but in actuality, that's only valid if you play only six games. The reason is due to combinatorics.
In the 6 game situation, you go bankrupt in only one result out of 2^6 combinations, where all of them are losses.
If you play 7 games, there are 2^7 different combinations, and 3 combinations where you lose 6 games in a row- losing the last 6, losing the first 6, and losing all 7, though you never get to the 7th game in that situation so you may as well merge those two into one. 2/(2^7-1) is greater than 1/2^6.
If you play 8 games, that's 2^8 total and 4 bankrupt situations with 4 merges. 4/(2^8-4) is greater than the last one. It keeps going like this, obviously. I'd rather not continue giving examples since I'm doing it by hand. There's a formula for this of course but I can't be arsed to look it up.
No. 940093 ID: b1b4f3

...permutations, not combinations.
No. 940111 ID: 864e49

>Dead boar
Yes, make more leather and make cooling pots.

>Dreamer's Grotto
Chateau de Lizard Hole Dreamer. Or just The Chateau. the joke is that its actually just a shack

After all that make two bronze shovels, then while Jordy works Le Forge, Ar and Verm go mine more ore.
No. 940123 ID: 91ee5f

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